{"id":26651,"date":"2025-01-16T09:24:17","date_gmt":"2025-01-16T07:24:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrcy.news\/?p=26651"},"modified":"2025-01-16T09:24:54","modified_gmt":"2025-01-16T07:24:54","slug":"russia-is-stepping-up-its-covert-war-beyond-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrcy.news\/2025\/01\/16\/russia-is-stepping-up-its-covert-war-beyond-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia Is Stepping Up Its Covert War Beyond Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"
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New data suggests a troubling new phase in the Kremlin\u2019s tactics that directly threatens the lives of Europeans.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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By\u00a0Bart Schuurman<\/strong><\/a>, a professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden University in the Netherlands.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Over the past three years, Russia has waged an\u00a0increasingly brazen<\/a>\u00a0campaign of sabotage and subversion against Ukraine\u2019s European allies. In 2024, Moscow significantly escalated its tactics\u2014turning to\u00a0assassination<\/a>, compromising\u00a0water facilities<\/a>\u00a0across several European countries, and targeting\u00a0civil aviation<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Russia\u2019s War in Ukraine<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Just this week, Duma member Alexander Kazakov\u00a0claimed<\/a>\u00a0Russian sabotage in the Baltic Sea was part of a military operation aimed at provoking NATO and enlarging Russia\u2019s control over the area. While events such as the cutting of undersea cables have garnered substantial media attention, no systematic effort has been made to assess the full scope and nature of Russia\u2019s actions against Europe.\u00a0Analysis<\/a>\u00a0from Leiden University exposes how far Russia is willing to go to weaken its European adversaries and isolate Ukraine from vital support. It paints a chilling picture of the potential for Russian escalation below the nuclear threshold\u2014and underlines the need for a concerted and assertive European response, which has been lacking so far.<\/p>\n

Amid increasing doubts over the United States\u2019 continued willingness to guarantee European security and provide military aid to Ukraine, as well as escalating Russian attacks, Europe cannot afford to dither on increasing its own military capabilities.<\/p>\n

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Based on an<\/span>\u00a0overview of Russian operations in the physical domain, excluding most cyber operations, Leiden University\u2019s research highlights how Moscow is increasingly escalating beyond its long-standing campaigns of\u00a0espionage<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0digital disruption<\/a>. Even using a conservative metric for attribution, Russian operations against Europe have surged from 6 in 2022 to 13 in 2023 and 44 in 2024. Most of these incidents involve preparations for sabotage. Targets have ranged from critical\u00a0undersea energy and communications infrastructure<\/a>\u00a0in the North and Baltic seas to\u00a0military bases<\/a>,\u00a0warehouses<\/a>, and\u00a0armaments plants<\/a>. Another common Russian tactic has been\u00a0influence operations<\/a>\u00a0that target European politicians to erode political support for Ukraine, both at the European Union and national levels. A key example is the Voice of Europe scandal, which centered on a radical news site that became a tool for the Kremlin to platform Russia-friendly content and funnel money to pro-Russian politicians in various European countries.<\/p>\n

Alongside these more sophisticated measures, there have been numerous acts of\u00a0vandalism<\/a>\u00a0seemingly designed to sow confusion and disrupt daily life. This suggests a dual operational approach, combining actions carried out by opportunistic criminals\u00a0recruited<\/a>\u00a0via platforms like Telegram with plots by operatives linked to state agencies such as the\u00a0GRU.<\/a><\/p>\n

In 2024, Russian operations against Europe sharply intensified, both in frequency and scope. In addition to an uptick in sabotage efforts, Moscow expanded its tactics to include targeted assassinations, killing a\u00a0pilot<\/a>\u00a0who defected, targeting the\u00a0CEO<\/a>\u00a0of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, and enlisting a Polish national in a plot to kill Ukrainian President\u00a0Volodymyr Zelensky<\/a>. The escalation also included more indiscriminate acts of violence, such as placing\u00a0incendiary devices<\/a>\u00a0on DHL flights\u2014which would have caused catastrophes if they had detonated mid-air. Instead, they went off in storage facilities in the United Kingdom and Germany shortly before or after being transported by air. Some Western security officials now suspect these operations were\u00a0rehearsals<\/a>\u00a0for future attacks on U.S.-bound airliners, meaning that Russia has effectively escalated to acts of state-directed terrorism. The threat to civil aviation is further exacerbated by a growing number of\u00a0GPS-jamming incidents<\/a>\u00a0along Russia\u2019s western border, as well as\u00a0drone incursions<\/a>\u00a0over civilian airports. Moscow\u2019s\u00a0blatant disregard<\/a>\u00a0for civilian life and its involvement in shooting down commercial airliners (such as a Malaysia Airlines flight in 2014 and an\u00a0Azerbaijan Airlines<\/a>\u00a0flight in December 2024) underscore the very real dangers that these operations pose to air travel over Europe.<\/p>\n

To fully understand the qualitative escalation of Russian operations against Europe in 2024, though, it\u2019s important to consider a broader range of incidents. Terrorism, or the use of deadly violence for political ends, extended beyond the attacks on DHL flights. Arguably, it also includes the Moscow-directed plots that materialized last year, when schools in Slovakia and the Czech Republic received more than a thousand\u00a0bomb threats<\/a>\u00a0that lead to several days of closures. Finally, a\u00a0range<\/a>\u00a0of break-ins at\u00a0water treatment plants<\/a>\u00a0raise the specter of sabotage operations capable of causing truly widespread harm to the physical safety of Europe\u2019s citizens. That such potential is anything but theoretical was demonstrated by the Swedish authorities recommending that affected residents boil their drinking water. Taken together, these activities mark a troubling new phase in Russian tactics against Europe that directly threatens the lives of its inhabitants.<\/p>\n

Attributing intent to covert operations is notoriously difficult, but Russia appears to be pursuing two primary goals: first, undermining the willingness of Europe\u2019s politicians and citizens to continue providing military aid to Ukraine; second, to signal the extent to which it is willing to escalate in pursuit of this aim. While Russia\u2019s operations to date have caused significant concern, the actual damage inflicted has been relatively limited. The greater danger lies in the level of violence and disruption that the Kremlin appears willing to use in the future.<\/p>\n

In discussions of what quantity or quality of aid to Ukraine could trigger a Russian red line and provoke escalation, the focus has largely been on the\u00a0threat of nuclear weapons<\/a>. However, Leiden University\u2019s analysis suggests that escalation is more likely to occur below the nuclear threshold\u2014and offers a glimpse of what that might entail: bombings of civilian airlines, sabotage of undersea infrastructure that could leave large portions of Europe without power or internet access, targeted assassinations of key industrial leaders, and attacks on water supplies that could jeopardize the health of hundreds of thousands of Europeans. There are also downstream effects to reckon with; as European security services pivot toward countering state-based threats,\u00a0counterterrorism coverage<\/a>\u00a0is likely to suffer, potentially providing opportunities for nonstate actors, such as Islamic State, to strike. Clearly, addressing Russia\u2019s increasingly aggressive stance toward Europe will require a multifaceted response.<\/p>\n

In December 2024, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte\u00a0warned<\/a>\u00a0that Europeans must \u201cshift to a wartime mindset.\u201d For a continent long accustomed to peace, this will be a difficult but necessary adjustment\u2014not only due to Ukraine\u2019s slow but steady\u00a0loss of territory<\/a>\u00a0to Russia, but also because the incoming U.S. administration, under President-elect Donald Trump, has signaled a\u00a0reluctance<\/a>\u00a0to further arm Ukraine and openly threatened to\u00a0abandon NATO allies<\/a>\u00a0that fail to meet their defense obligations.<\/p>\n

Despite the urgency of the situation\u2014and the data reveals that Germany and France are emerging as the most targeted countries\u2014Europe\u2019s attention appears divided. Key powers like\u00a0Germany<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0France<\/a>\u00a0are preoccupied with economic downturns, budget deficits, and rising political turmoil, undercutting their ability to significantly ramp up their commitments to Ukraine. The United Kingdom, Europe\u2019s other major military power, is facing\u00a0significant cuts<\/a>\u00a0on defense spending, despite the worsening international security situation. In Romania, a pro-Russian candidate recently won the\u00a0first round<\/a>\u00a0of the presidential election (although it has now been\u00a0annulled<\/a>). Writing from the Netherlands, the news cycle has, for months, been dominated by the twists and turns of an unstable coalition government that seems focused primarily on\u00a0domestic affairs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

After three years of escalating Russian aggression, the threat that Europe faces is broadly acknowledged. Yet, many European politicians still seem hesitant to take the necessary steps to address it, perhaps wary of voter backlash when difficult decisions need to be made on financing increased military expenditure. For their part, many voters appear to want a reorientation on domestic matters over international ones, taking a \u201cfirst us, then them\u201d approach as a recent\u00a0Dutch study<\/a>\u00a0summarized.<\/p>\n

Yet, if Europe does not recalibrate its priorities and respond with unity and commitment, the consequences could be dire\u2014not only for Ukraine, but for the continent\u2019s longer-term security and its place in the NATO alliance.<\/p>\n

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To shore up<\/span>\u00a0Europe\u2019s security, a more assertive posture toward Russian operations is needed. The Finnish authorities\u2019 decision to board and detain a\u00a0cargo ship<\/a>\u00a0suspected of damaging an undersea cable last December and NATO\u2019s decision to strengthen its\u00a0naval presence<\/a>\u00a0in the Baltic Sea are positive signs in this regard. More fundamentally, Europe needs to define its own red lines in response to Moscow\u2019s provocations. So far, discussions around escalation risks have largely been\u00a0reactive<\/a>, focused on the type of Western aid to Ukraine that could trigger a Russian response, rather than the establishment of clear thresholds for European retaliatory measures. These could include further sanctions or the appropriation of frozen Russian assets, as well as the delivery of additional weapon systems to Ukraine and even the establishment of a\u00a0no-fly zone<\/a>\u00a0over the country. A publicly communicated commitment to retaliate against sabotage, supported by a credible threat, could provide deterrent capabilities that are currently lacking.<\/p>\n

As part of this more assertive posture, Europe will need to invest in strengthening its\u00a0intelligence services<\/a>\u2014both to maximize their ability to deal with the heightened Russian threat and to maintain a high level of counterterrorism capability toward nonstate extremists, such as the\u00a0Islamic State<\/a>. In the longer term, Europe must finally make serious and concerted efforts to reinvigorate its own armament industry, which is crucial to maintaining an ability to supply Ukraine regardless of U.S. foreign-policy priorities, as well as autonomously safeguarding the security on which the continent\u2019s prosperity ultimately depends. None of this will come about easily, especially in a continent infamous for its inability to organize its own collective security. But the stakes are high and extend beyond the need to support Ukraine and ward off future Russian aggression. Essentially, the question is whether Europe\u2019s liberal democracies can withstand the pressures of autocratic revanchism, or whether their ideals will falter under an inability to safeguard them through military means. With democracy\u00a0under threat<\/a>\u00a0worldwide, Europe cannot afford to waver in the face of Russia\u2019s imperialist ambitions.<\/p>\n

Stijn Willem van \u2018t Land and Dion Jordens assisted with data collection.<\/em><\/p>\n

Source Foreign Policy<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New data suggests a troubling new phase in the Kremlin\u2019s tactics that directly threatens the lives of Europeans. By\u00a0Bart Schuurman, a professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden University […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26652,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ukrcy-news-eng","category-novyny"],"yoast_head":"\nRussia Is Stepping Up Its Covert War Beyond Ukraine - UKRCY.NEWS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ukrcy.news\/2025\/01\/16\/russia-is-stepping-up-its-covert-war-beyond-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"uk_UA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russia Is Stepping Up Its Covert War Beyond Ukraine - UKRCY.NEWS\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"New data suggests a troubling new phase in the Kremlin\u2019s tactics that directly threatens the lives of Europeans. 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