{"id":29230,"date":"2025-03-31T12:43:58","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T09:43:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrcy.news\/?p=29230"},"modified":"2025-03-31T12:43:58","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T09:43:58","slug":"russias-dangerous-facts-on-ukraines-ground","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrcy.news\/2025\/03\/31\/russias-dangerous-facts-on-ukraines-ground\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s Dangerous Facts on Ukraine\u2019s Ground"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russia\u2019s quiet land policies could determine the fate of peace in Ukraine\u2014and beyond.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
By\u00a0Michael Albertus<\/strong><\/a>, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, and\u00a0Eugene Finkel<\/strong><\/a>, the Kenneth H. Keller professor of international affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.<\/div>\n
\n

The weaponry used in the Russia-Ukraine war has been modern, but land remains the conflict\u2019s most valuable strategic asset. And for Russia, the main value in land is not economic but political. Far from merely occupying Ukrainian territory, the Kremlin is quietly but efficiently converting military occupation into permanent ownership and global influence through land and agricultural policy.<\/p>\n

Even as the conflict\u2019s stipulated borders and peacekeeping mechanisms dominate the public discussion, the fate of any peace deal could turn on its treatment of the physical land that Russia occupies and the grain and other crops it produces there. Any peace deal that fails to consider these land policies will be a contradiction in terms.<\/p>\n

Land has always been crucial for politics, and control over it remains a fundamental strategy in winning any conventional war. Land\u00a0confers<\/a>\u00a0immense economic, political, and social power to those who control it. Because land is central to livelihoods in the rural areas of eastern and southern Ukraine, and because the country\u2019s fertile\u00a0chernozem<\/em>\u00a0(black earth) is highly valuable for agricultural production, who holds that land\u2014and how they hold it\u2014determines who has political power.<\/p>\n

Russia has accordingly sought to dominate and rewire occupied Ukraine through its imposition of Russian law and administration over the land. In the occupied territories, Russian authorities are\u00a0forcing<\/a>\u00a0people off their land, stripping them of their\u00a0ability to resist the occupation<\/a>, and requiring others to reregister their land in Russian land registries\u2014with the threat of losing it if they fail to comply.<\/p>\n

For the residents of occupied Ukraine, the choice is stark: Compliance means acceptance of Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s rule, whereas defiance might lead to financial ruin. Those who have left the region and become refugees might lose their property forever.<\/p>\n

These policies also follow a time-tested playbook. States have long used land to strip their enemies of power and to assert new control and authority. From the Roman\u00a0lex agraria<\/em>\u00a0to the Ottoman Land Code of 1858 to Venezuela\u2019s 2001 Land Law, the requirement to reregister land can be used as an opportunity for land grabbing in an atmosphere of legal limbo. Throughout history, occupiers have used land ownership to repress or remove dissident populations, bring in loyalists, and assert control.<\/p>\n

This is also a familiar Russian strategy of\u00a0dominating Ukraine<\/a>, having been employed at times ranging from Russia\u2019s imperial expansion during the 18th century to the heydays of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin\u2019s collectivization, famine, and mass deportations in the 1930s-1940s.<\/p>\n

While Ukrainians are being pushed out, Russians are moving in. In the rapidly expanding land grab, Russian oligarchs and agricultural companies close to the Kremlin have already taken over\u00a0large tracts<\/a>\u00a0of occupied cropland, according to the\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/em>. Residents of occupied Ukraine estimate that tens of thousands of Russian citizens have already\u00a0moved<\/a>\u00a0to these territories, lured by prospects of cheap or free real estate that formerly belonged to Ukrainians who have been killed or displaced by the Kremlin.<\/p>\n

The implications of Russia\u2019s land policies in occupied Ukraine will shape the future of the region\u2014and potentially the world. Any cease-fire that stops the fighting but fails to address the Kremlin\u2019s land grab will make it impossible to describe Ukraine\u2019s territory as merely \u201coccupied\u201d by Russia. Allowing Russia to control, register, and reallocate land as it pleases will eventually make the area into a de facto fully Russian territory.<\/p>\n

The Kremlin\u00a0is also using its control of Ukrainian land to advance Russia\u2019s global influence. In the global south, Moscow\u2019s standing is strong, allowing it to\u00a0circumvent sanctions<\/a>, obtain\u00a0foreign soldiers<\/a>, gain\u00a0diplomatic support<\/a>, and continue the war in Ukraine. That standing turns on Russia\u2019s control of land and its use of that land for influence in the global\u00a0grain market.<\/p>\n

While the United States and its allies have spent considerable effort to curtail Russia\u2019s geopolitical leverage through controls on its exports of\u00a0oil<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0gas<\/a>, Western policymakers consistently ignore Russia\u2019s even more potent tool of global influence\u2014bread.<\/p>\n

Russia has only recently gained dominance on the global grain market. Traditionally, the Soviet Union was a major importer of grain. Both it and the Russian Empire before it were brought down by\u00a0food shortages<\/a>, and as late as 1999, Russia had to rely on Western\u00a0food aid<\/a>\u00a0to feed itself.<\/p>\n

This changed in mid-2000s, when the Kremlin adopted a long-term\u00a0strategy<\/a>\u00a0to make agriculture a priority in order to shield Russia from dependence on imported food. In less than 15 years, Russia switched from being an importer of wheat to the world\u2019s largest exporter; it now controls\u00a0about a quarter<\/a>\u00a0of global wheat trade.<\/p>\n

Historically, for Russia\u2019s leaders,\u00a0food is a weapon<\/a>. Starting in the 1920s, famines in which millions perished were used by Soviet authorities to\u00a0destroy<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0subjugate<\/a>\u00a0dissident social groups and regions.<\/p>\n

Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and the country\u2019s current deputy secretary of the Security Council, explicitly refers to grain as Russia\u2019s \u201csilent but fearsome<\/a>\u201d ammunition, suggesting it could be used against countries opposed to the Kremlin\u2019s war. Russian state media has also threatened to stop food supplies to \u201cunfriendly<\/a>\u201d countries.<\/p>\n

In October 2024, Russia even proposed the creation of a grain exchange among the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and\u00a0several recently added members<\/a>) in what\u00a0Nikkei<\/em>\u00a0referred to as a possible \u201cOPEC for wheat<\/a>,\u201d in which Russia would be an undisputed leader.<\/p>\n

The war against Ukraine has only strengthened Russia\u2019s grip over the global grain supply. Whereas the West managed to limit the Kremlin\u2019s ability to use oil and gas as geopolitical weapons, Russian agriculture and agricultural exports have largely been shielded from sanctions in an effort to avoid disruptions to global food supplies.<\/p>\n

Since February 2022, Russia\u2019s wheat exports have risen\u00a0significantly<\/a>, increasing by\u00a024 percent<\/a>\u00a0from 2022-23 to 2023-24. In the Middle East and North Africa, regions that are heavily dependent on grain imports for food security and stability,\u00a0reliance<\/a>\u00a0on Russian grain\u00a0only deepened<\/a>\u00a0after the Kremlin\u2019s 2022 invasion.<\/p>\n

This increase is not simply a result of Russia producing more. Russia\u2019s growing global share and expanding exports in the grain industry are a direct outcome of its devastation of Ukraine, another major agricultural producer, and its seizure of\u00a0Ukrainian grain<\/a>. Arrangements that encourage Ukraine\u2019s own exports are simply not sufficient to compensate for the wreckage caused by the war.<\/p>\n

The implications of Russia\u2019s quest for dominance through grain are profound. In 2010, Russia\u2019s position on the global grain market was much more modest, with 15 percent of the global export share. But when a drought prompted it to\u00a0ban grain exports<\/a>\u00a0that year, many Middle Eastern and North African countries struggled to compensate for the lost grain, and the subsequent food crisis\u00a0contributed<\/a>\u00a0to the outbreak of the Arab Spring.<\/p>\n

Now, Putin is doing it again: After the fall of the\u00a0Kremlin-allied regime of Bashar al-Assad, Russia quickly\u00a0suspended<\/a>\u00a0grain shipments to Syria, contributing to an economic crisis. If Russia continues to cut grain exports for geopolitical reasons or because of domestic shortages, the fallout could be a global wave of instability, food insecurity, and migration.<\/p>\n

The West therefore should recognize the dangers and the long-term impact of Russia\u2019s land policies in occupied Ukraine and act accordingly. Otherwise, even if Ukraine manages to liberate its territories sometime in the future, it will have to confront a new structure of land ownership, deals, and land transfers that have been carried out outside of Ukraine\u2019s legal and administrative framework\u2014and the conflicting ownership claims that will result.<\/p>\n

Experience from other conflicts shows that such situations often result in an overloaded legal system, economic inefficiency, political resentment, and potentially large-scale violence. After years of war and devastation, the Ukrainian government simply will not have enough capacity to meet this challenge on its own.<\/p>\n

Any future cease-fire agreement should thus prevent Russia from unilaterally changing land ownership policies in occupied Ukraine. The United States and European Union should not lift sanctions or normalize relations with the Kremlin while it continues to grab Ukrainian land.\u00a0Ukraine\u2019s partners and international bodies such as the World Bank should also work with Kyiv to monitor land ownership structures in the occupied areas and prepare the legal and administrative tools to mitigate the impact of Russia\u2019s land policies if these regions return to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

It will also be important to use every available instrument to counter Russia\u2019s ability to unleash a global food security crisis for political benefit. This could involve punishing anyone who illegally benefits from the illicit trade in grain from occupied Ukraine.<\/p>\n

But policymakers should also promote and subsidize alternatives to Russian grain\u2014including in Ukraine itself. That will be the only way to prevent Russia\u2019s use of Ukrainian land as a weapon against the world.<\/p>\n

\n

Michael Albertus<\/strong>\u00a0is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. He is the author of the forthcoming book,\u00a0Land Power: Who Has It, Who Doesn\u2019t, and How That Determines the Fate of Societies<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Eugene Finkel<\/strong>\u00a0is the Kenneth H. Keller professor of international affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. The author or co-author of three previous books, his writing has appeared in the\u00a0Washington Post<\/em>,\u00a0Los Angeles Times<\/em>, and\u00a0Foreign Affairs<\/em>. X:\u00a0@eugene_fink<\/a><\/p>\n

Source Foreign Policy Magazine<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russia\u2019s quiet land policies could determine the fate of peace in Ukraine\u2014and beyond. By\u00a0Michael Albertus, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, and\u00a0Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. 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